Oscar 2004: Picks and Predictions
Article by Mark Dujsik
I'm actually fairly confident in my predictions this year, which is sure to mean that I'll end up losing whatever Oscar pool(s) I may be entered in. This year, I've taken the ignorance approach, for the sake of experimentation and the fact that my own personal life has taken an unexpected turn over the last few months. Anyway, enough about me. Let's get to what matters: Who should and will win.
BEST PICTURE
The Nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit
My Choice: It's not a bad year for nominees this year. Mystic River is most definitely the weakest of the group, but apparently enough unabashed critical buzz can get you here. Lost in Translation's nod is a pleasant surprise. Seabiscuit is another surprise, only because of the Academy's typically short-term memory problem, but then again, it's a crowd pleaser. That leaves us with two superb films, although one clearly stands out in my mind. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World is an epic that breathes like a novel and is only second to my personal preference for the winner. That distinction belongs to The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, making this the third year in a row that I've picked an installment in the trilogy as my personal pick.
My Prediction: I think the academy is finally going to go along with me this year and give the award to Return of the King. If they do, it will be for the complete picture of The Lord of the Rings. Count out Seabiscuit and Master and Commander completely, but don't rule out Lost in Translation as an indie dark horse. My fear, though, is that all the noise around Mystic River could silence the Academy's last chance to award one of the most impressive cinematic spectacles of our time.
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
ACTOR
The Nominees: Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl; Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog; Jude Law, Cold Mountain; Bill Murray, Lost in Translation; Sean Penn, Mystic River
My Choice: A really nice lineup of actors, and three of them are all almost equally deserving of the award. Jude Law stands out like a sore thumb in this list of nominees, although only through the fault of the material he had to work with. Sean Penn's performance is technically sound but left me emotionally uninvolved. Now comes the hard part. Bill Murray's work in Lost in Translation could only come from somewhere deep inside, and it results in a revelation of a performance. Johnny Depp always manages to completely immerse himself in his characters, so when he takes that versatility and applies it to a character so outlandish, it results in one of the most fascinating performances of the year. But I'm going with my heart and this, and Ben Kingsley broke it with his portrayal of a stoic former military man who falls under the weight of circumstances beyond his control.
My Prediction: Unfortunately, we can count Kingsley and, fortunately, Law out. Murray and Depp have a lot of potential, but the Academy is notorious for overlooking comedic work—not matter how good. Penn is going to have this one brought to his house the day after the ceremony. I wonder if he'll leave it on the porch.
The Winner: Sean Penn, Mystic River
BEST
ACTRESS
The Nominees: Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider; Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give; Samantha Morton, In America; Charlize Theron, Monster; Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
My Choice: I can only choose between two here. Charlize Theron's transformation is astounding, but Keisha Castle-Hughes manages to emerge as the heart of an already heart-filled film.
My Prediction: Watts, Morton, and Castle-Hughes are out. Diane Keaton has the veteran advantage/disadvantage, so expect Theron to take it.
The Winner: Charlize Theron, Monster
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Alec Baldwin, The Cooler; Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams; Djimon Hounsou, In America; Tim Robbins, Mystic River; Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai
My Choice: Once again, only two. Ken Watanabe is a forcible presence in The Last Samurai, but Tim Robbins' work in Mystic River is the film's most prominent saving grace.
My Prediction: And on that same note, Robbins is sure to win.
The Winner: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog; Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April; Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River; Holly Hunter, Thirteen; Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain
My Choice: Marcia Gay Harden's nomination is an absolute head-scratcher. It's just a weak performance. Shohreh Aghdashloo is a graceful presence in House of Sand and Fog, but Renée Zellweger is a breath of fresh air in the otherwise stale Cold Mountain.
My Prediction: After two nominations for Best Actress, Zellweger will probably take this one. Clarkson and Aghdashloo are two to look for as possible upsets.
The Winner: Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain
BEST
DIRECTOR
The Nominees: Fernando Meirelles, City of God; Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation; Peter Weir, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World; Clint Eastwood, Mystic River
My Choice: Yes, Sofia Coppola does great work in Lost in Translation. Yes, Peter Weir captures the intimacy within the immense scope of Master and Commander. But Peter Jackson has had this award coming for three years in row now, and he wasn't even nominated last year.
My Prediction: So, expect Jackson. Coppola or, more likely, Eastwood might take it from him, but it's doubtful.
The Winner: Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: The Barbarian Invasions, Canada; Evil, Sweden; The Twilight Samurai, Japan; Twin Sisters, Netherlands; Zelary, Czech Republic
My Choice: n/a
My Prediction: The Barbarian Invasions
The Winner: The Barbarian Invasions
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: Brother Bear, Finding Nemo, The Triplets of Belleville
My Choice: Finding Nemo
My Prediction: Finding Nemo
The Winner: Finding Nemo
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: Shari Springer Berman, American Splendor; Bráulio Mantovani, City of God; Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, and Frances Walsh, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; Brian Helgeland, Mystic River; Gary Ross, Seabiscuit
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: Mystic River
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: Denys Arcand, The Barbarian Invasions; Steve Knight, Dirty Pretty Things; Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, and David Reynolds, Finding Nemo; Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, and Kirsten Sheridan, In America; Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation
My Choice: Lost in Translation
My Prediction: Lost in Translation
The Winner: Lost in Translation
BEST
ART DIRECTION
The Nominees: Girl with a Pearl Earring, The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Nominees: City of God, Cold Mountain, Girl with a Pearl Earring, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit
My Choice: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
My Prediction: Cold Mountain
The Winner: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
BEST
SOUND MIXING
The Nominees: The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, Seabiscuit
My Choice: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
SOUND EDITING
The Nominees: Finding Nemo, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
My Choice: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
My Prediction: Finding Nemo
The Winner: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Big Fish, Danny Elfman; Cold Mountain, Gabriel Yared; Finding Nemo, Thomas Newman; House of Sand and Fog, James Horner; The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Howard Shore
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: "Into the West" from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Frances Walsh, Howard Shore, and Annie Lennox; "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" from A Mighty Wind, Michael McKean and Annette O'Toole; "The Scarlet Tide" from Cold Mountain, T-Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello; "The Triplets of Belleville" from The Triplets of Belleville, Benoît Charest; "You Will Be My Ain True Love" from Cold Mountain, Sting
My Choice: "Into the West" from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: "Into the West" from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: "Into the West" from The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
COSTUME DESIGN
The Nominees: Girl with a Pearl Earring, The Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
EDITING
The Nominees: City of God, Cold Mountain, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Seabiscuit
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
MAKEUP
The Nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, Pirates of the Caribbean
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Nominees: Balseros, Capturing the Friedmans, The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara, My Architect: A Son's Journey, The Weather Underground
My Choice: n/a
My Prediction: Capturing the Friedmans
The Winner: The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara
BEST
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Nominees: "Asylum," "Chernobyl Heart," "Ferry Tales"
My Choice: n/a
My Prediction: "Chernobyl Heart"
The Winner: "Chernobyl Heart"
BEST
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Nominees: "Boundin'," "Destino," "Gone Nutty," "Harvie Krumpet," "Nibbles"
My Choice: n/a
My Prediction: "Boundin'"
The Winner: "Harvie Krumpet"
BEST
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Nominees: "Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)," "Most (The Bridge)," "Squash," "(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)," "Two Soldiers"
My Choice: n/a
My Prediction: "Two Soldiers"
The Winner: "Two Soldiers"
Predicted
film with the most awards: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the
King
Film
with the most awards:
Copyright © 2004 by Mark Dujsik. All rights reserved.
