Oscar 2003: Picks and Predictions
Just when I thought I had most
of the major categories figured out, all the other awards get announced and
completely throw me off (SAG, I’m talking about you).
Well, not completely, but I’ve had to make some major changes in my
preliminary thinking. A few of those
sure-things a month ago seem less and less so as the days progress.
And I’m sure I’ll be second-guessing myself until a few of the
envelopes are opened. That makes it
fun, though, right? It doesn’t
mean I don’t have a decent idea of what will happen Oscar night; I just know
I’ll probably be kicking myself after the ceremony.
Will it be as split as I’m predicting?
Probably not. Will there be a
huge sweep by a certain film with thirteen nominations?
Don’t be surprised if there is.
The Nominees: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, The Pianist
My
Choice: Well, after last year’s lineup of nominees, I guess I set
myself up for disappointment this year. I’m
only entirely pleased with two of the nominees.
One I’m pretty content with. One
I understand but am surprised by its success.
The other one, I knew was coming but secretly hoped would just be left on
the curb. So, of the first two, Chicago
definitely has my support if and when it takes home the gold statue, but my
true hopes lie with The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.
With its fantastic special effects, a cast that has perfectly settled in
to their respective roles, a determination to keep a larger sense of narrative,
and a detailed examination of a world at war, The
Two Towers deserves what its predecessor was denied.
My
Prediction: Gangs of New York
and, unfortunately, The Two Towers don’t stand a chance.
The Pianist has been gaining momentum, but I expect controversy
surrounding Roman Polanski’s legal status to keep his film from winning.
For a long while, I was sure The Hours would walk away with this
one, but a DGA, PGA, and SAG award can change your perspective pretty quickly.
I’m still dreading my original notion coming true, but I’m pretty
sure Chicago will be the
first musical in thirty-four years to win the big prize.
The
Winner:
Chicago
BEST
ACTOR
The
Nominees: Adrien Brody, The Pianist; Nicolas Cage, Adaptation;
Michael Caine, The Quiet American; Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York;
Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt
My Choice: I’ve
got it narrowed down to two here. Adrien
Brody’s physical and psychological deterioration helped to give the illusion
of depth to a rather thin character. Nicolas
Cage’s double role as twin screenwriters is deceptively simple but incredibly
funny. I have yet to see The Quiet American, so Michael Caine will remain absent from my
consideration. That leaves the two
I’m seriously pondering. Jack
Nicholson’s work as Warren Schmidt is funny, sad, and, most importantly,
entirely human. It’s some of the
actor’s best work. But I’m going
with Daniel Day-Lewis as Bill the
Butcher, one of the best screen villains to come around in a while.
He gobbles up the role, chews the scenery, and makes it so believable
within the context of the film’s social commentary that it resonates like no
other performance this year.
My
Prediction:
I’m fairly convinced that the voting majority will have a difficult time
choosing between my final two choices as well.
For the longest time, I figured Day-Lewis had it.
Then I started to think, well, the Academy loves Nicholson, and he won
the Golden Globe (albeit in the wrong category).
So I was pretty sold on that possibility.
Then the SAG awards come along and put me back on my original track.
Or so I thought. So that’s
what I’m sticking with: Day-Lewis over Nicholson.
It could go either way, but that’s the way I’m predicting.
The
Winner:
Adrien Brody, The Pianist
BEST
ACTRESS
The
Nominees: Salma Hayek, Frida; Nicole Kidman, The Hours;
Diane Lane, Unfaithful; Julianne Moore, Far from Heaven; Renée
Zellweger, Chicago
My Choice: No
real contest for me in this category. I
missed Frida, which is too bad considering how well it did nomination-wise.
Renée Zellweger is fine in Chicago,
but the other performances in the category are simply stronger.
Nicole Kidman should have won last year, and her Virginia Woolf is one of
the few worthwhile elements in The Hours.
Diane Lane has the difficulty of making underdeveloped motivations
believable, which she does not succeed at, but that is not her fault.
Considering what she has to work with, she gives an incredible
performance. However, of all the
nominees, Julianne Moore’s work is
the most subtle, most developed, and most affecting.
My
Prediction: Another
one I thought I had figured out, but Zellweger’s SAG win sure threw me for a
loop. I still don’t know where it
came from, except heavy marketing on the part of Miramax.
I hate to go against the SAG award again (although it will be a pattern
for the rest of the acting categories too), because they are usually pretty
dependable. Moore’s work is
probably too subtle for a lot of voters. Salma
Hayek’s nomination is prize enough. Lane
won’t be remembered as well as more recent performances.
That leaves Kidman, who I believe will benefit from the “should
have won last year” sentiment. That
and everyone loves her now. It will
be nice that she could get the recognition, although she’s deserved it since To
Die For.
The
Winner:
Nicole Kidman, The Hours
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The
Nominees: Chris Cooper, Adaptation; Ed Harris, The Hours;
Paul Newman, Road to Perdition; John C. Reilly, Chicago;
Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can
My Choice: A
fairly weak category from where I stand. Don’t
get me wrong; all the performances in it are good.
Ed Harris is probably the weakest of the nominees, if only because he and
Meryl Streep try to out-act each other in their first scene together.
Paul Newman is very effective, but his nomination is probably more for
his career than this specific performance. John
C. Reilly has been doing great character work for a while now, and it’s nice
to see him get some recognition. He
nails Amos and the show stopping "Mr. Cellophane."
Chris Cooper has also been a reliable character actor, and he disappears
into this role. However, it’s Christopher Walken who takes this one in my mind.
As Frank Abagnale Sr., Walken explores a more desperate, lonely,
melancholy side that we don’t typically associate with the actor.
My
Prediction: This
is the category I can usually depend on missing out on, but this year, I think
I’ve figured it out. Walken won
the SAG award, a victory that I’m very happy about but that I doubt will
translate into an Oscar. Newman may
have the advantage of his career, but that does not always guarantee a win.
In fact, in recent years, predictions based on that theory have proved
fruitless. I’m going with the
Golden Globe winner, an award that I’ve noticed is pretty reliable in
predicting this category. Cooper
has had this award coming since award season started, so I figure it will play
out that way.
The
Winner:
Chris Cooper, Adaptation
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The
Nominees: Kathy Bates, About Schmidt; Julianne Moore, The
Hours; Queen Latifah, Chicago; Meryl Streep, Adaptation;
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
My Choice: Well,
Queen Latifah sure did do an outstanding job on her one song and dance number,
but is it worthy of a nomination? No.
The success of Meryl Streep’s performance is mostly due to some
brilliant casting. She Acts in a
part that’s supposed to play out like a movie, so it works.
Kathy Bates was very funny and does a lot with small screentime.
Julianne Moore seems the odd one out, considering the fact that she was
in the film longer than her Best Actress nominee costar Nicole Kidman. I’d
pick Catherine Zeta-Jones, who really
shows off some great singing and dancing and really shines in a pretty
impressive cast.
My Prediction: Don’t expect the Chicago actresses to split the vote in any way. Latifah is out of the race. Bates has been ignored for better roles before, and I expect that will happen again. Moore may walk away with a sympathy award for people who didn’t vote for her in the lead actress category, but it’s somewhat doubtful. She’ll get her Oscar one day; she’d better. Even though Zeta-Jones grabbed the SAG, her biggest competition wasn’t even nominated thanks to a marketing mistake that reminds us how utterly, ridiculously political awards like this are. The competition, of course, is Streep, who, by simply being Meryl Streep, should take this one.
The
Winner:
Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago
BEST
DIRECTOR
The
Nominees: Rob Marshall, Chicago; Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New
York; Stephen Daldry, The Hours; Roman Polanski, The Pianist;
Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her
My Choice: I
can’t believe Stephen Daldry is in this mix.
Seriously, I just don’t believe it.
I haven’t seen Talk to Her,
so no comment on Pedro Almodóvar. Roman
Polanski’s distant, removed work on The
Pianist impacted a lot of people, but it left me emotionally unattached.
I’m willing to admit that it is great work, but it’s not my choice.
Rob Marshall directed the best film of the nominees, but he’s not the
best of the nominees. That honor, in
my mind, goes to Martin Scorsese,
whose Gangs of New York is not his
best work, but it is most definitely the most ambitious out-taking in the group.
My
Prediction:
Almodóvar is a maybe but unlikely. Polanski’s
criminal problems cannot be ignored. Daldry
is going to suffer from The Hours loss
of momentum (and well he should). Marshall
won the DGA award, which is a pretty reliable source for future Oscar winners,
so I’m not leaving him out. Scorsese
has Miramax behind him. Marshall
does too, of course, but Scorsese is the one they’ll be pushing.
The
Winner:
Roman Polanski, The Pianist
BEST
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: El Crimen del Padre Amaro, Mexico; Hero, People's Republic of China; The Man Without a Past, Finland; Nowhere in Africa, Germany; Zus & Zo, The Netherlands
My Choice: n/a
My
Prediction: El Crimen del Padre Amaro
The
Winner:
Nowhere
in Africa
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE
The
Nominees: Ice Age, Lilo & Stitch, Spirit: Stallion
of the Cimarron, Spirited Away, Treasure Planet
My Choice: More
kiddy flicks and I haven’t seen Spirited
Away yet (I know, I know). So
I’ve got to go with Lilo
& Stitch.
My
Prediction: Spirited Away will probably take this one, but Lilo &
Stitch could pull an upset.
The
Winner:
Spirited Away
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The
Nominees: Peter Hedges and Chris Weitz & Paul Weitz, About a Boy;
Charlie Kaufman and Donald Kaufman, Adaptation; Bill Condon, Chicago;
David Hare, The Hours; Ronald Harwood, The Pianist
My Choice: One of
the nominees doesn’t exist and Susan Orlean must have a really good sense of
humor, but Adaptation
is one of those rare screenplays that’s more impressive then the resulting
film.
My
Prediction: Heaven
help me, The Hours is going to win.
The
Winner:
Ronald Harwood, The Pianist
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: Todd Haynes, Far from Heaven; Jay Cocks and Steve Zaillian and Kenneth Lonergan, Gangs of New York; Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding; Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her; Carlos Cuarón and Alfonso Cuarón, Y Tu Mamá También
My Choice: From
my perspective, this is a pretty weak category, but Y
Tu Mamá También’s script stands out thanks to strong character,
social, and thematic development.
My
Prediction: As
much as I hate to think it, My
Big Fat Greek Wedding will
probably win, despite being based on a one-woman show, lacking properly
developed characters and jokes, and other major problems.
The
Winner:
Pedro Almodóvar, Talk to Her
BEST
ART DIRECTION
The
Nominees: Chicago, Frida, Gangs of New York, The Lord of the Rings: The
Two Towers, Road to Perdition
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
My
Prediction: Frida
The
Winner:
Chicago
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The
Nominees: Chicago, Far from Heaven, Gangs of
New York, The Pianist, Road to Perdition
My Choice: Road to Perdition
My
Prediction: Road to Perdition
The
Winner:
Road to Perdition
BEST
SOUND
The
Nominees: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Lord of the Rings: The
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
My Prediction: Chicago
The
Winner:
Chicago
BEST
SOUND EDITING
The
Nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Minority Report, Road to Perdition
My Choice: Minority Report
My
Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The
Winner:
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Catch Me If You Can, John Williams; Far from Heaven, Elmer Bernstein; Frida, Elliot Goldenthal; The Hours, Philip Glass; Road to Perdition, Thomas Newman
My Choice: Far from Heaven
My
Prediction: Frida
The
Winner:
Frida
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: "Burn It Blue" from Frida, Elliot Goldenthal and Julie Taymore; "Father and Daughter" from The Wild Thornberrys Movie, Paul Simon; "The Hands That Built America" from Gangs of New York, Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen; "I Move On" from Chicago, John Kander and Fred Ebb; "Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile, Eminem, Jeff Bass and Luis Resto
My Choice: "Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile
My Prediction: "The Hands That Built America" from Gangs of New York
The
Winner:
"Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile
BEST
COSTUME DESIGN
The
Nominees: Chicago, Frida, Gangs of New York, The Hours, The Pianist
My Choice: Gangs of New York
My
Prediction: Frida
The
Winner:
Chicago
BEST
EDITING
The
Nominees: Chicago, Gangs of
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
My Prediction: Chicago
The
Winner:
Chicago
BEST
MAKEUP
The
Nominees: Frida, The Time Machine
My Choice: n/a
My
Prediction: Frida
The
Winner:
Frida
BEST
VISUAL EFFECTS
The
Nominees: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Spider-Man,
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones
My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
My
Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
The
Winner:
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The
Nominees: Bowling for Columbine, Daughter from Danang, Prisoner
of Paradise, Spellbound, Winged Migration
My Choice: Bowling for Columbine
My
Prediction: Bowling for Columbine
The
Winner:
Bowling for Columbine
BEST
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Nominees: "The Collector of Bedford Street," "Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks," "Twin Towers," "Why Can't We Be a Family Again"
My Choice: No idea
My
Prediction: "
The
Winner:
"
BEST
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The
Nominees: "The Cathedral," "The Chubbchubbs!,"
"Das Rad," "Mike's New Car," "
My Choice: "Mike’s New Car"
My Prediction: "Mike’s New Car"
The
Winner:
"The Chubbchubbs!"
BEST
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Nominees: "Fait D'Hiver," "I'll Wait for the Next One (J'Attendrai le Suivant)," "Inja (Dog)," "Johnny Flynton," "This Charming Man (Der er en Yndig Man)"
My Choice: No idea
My
Prediction: "Johnny
Flynton"
The Winner: "This Charming Man (Der er en Yndig Man)"
Predicted
film with the most awards: Frida
Film with the most awards: Chicago
Copyright © 2003 by Mark Dujsik. All rights reserved.
