Oscar 2002: Picks and Predictions

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Article by Mark Dujsik

Is it just me, or does this Oscar race seem wide open to almost everyone and everything? All of the pre-Oscar awards have not seemed to agree on anything. Just look at the films in the Best Picture category: A Beautiful Mind won the Golden Globe; Gosford Park won the SAG award for Best Ensemble; In the Bedroom has been ignored (which may work in its favor); Lord of the Rings took home the AFI Best Picture honors and more importantly won over the BAFTA; and Moulin Rouge just received the Producers Guild Best Picture award. A lot of the other categories find themselves in a similar condition. And don’t forget that Fellowship has a whopping thirteen nominations. Is a sweep in store? Doubtful, but who knows—anything is possible. Yes, this will be a year of some big surprises, I’m sure. It also leaves those of us who try to predict the winners in quite a quandary, but I’m going to do my best to take a stab at this. No matter how the awards turn out, it’ll be sure to cause quite an uproar for anyone really interested in this kind of stuff.

The Nominees: A Beautiful Mind, Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge

My Choice: This is probably one of the best lineups of nominees I’ve seen in a while. Four of the five are in my top ten of the year, and three of them are in my top five. I can’t complain, really, but when it comes to choosing a preference, the answer is hands down The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Of all the nominees, this is the most ambitious entry, not just because it is the first in the series of one the riskiest projects in Hollywood history, but because of its huge scale and scope, its joyous use of special effects, its lush landscapes captured in sweeping cinematography, and, most importantly, its finely tuned sense of storytelling. To top it all off, it fully and completely works.

My Prediction: In my eyes, the race boils down to two films: A Beautiful Mind and The Lord of the Rings. Both are safe bets, which makes the choice between the two even harder. Mind is seen as a safe Hollywood drama (I don’t think it deserves to be insulted as "safe," though), and Rings is seen as the big epic (and you know how the Academy loves those epics). A strong backlash against Mind has predictably come to a head, and it had been slowly building up until this point. I think it may do enough damage to the film to allow Fellowship to win the big award. The other choices are longshots, but if there is a dark horse that actually has a chance of winning, though, it’s Moulin Rouge.

The Winner: A Beautiful Mind

The Nominees: Russell Crowe, A Beautiful Mind; Sean Penn, I Am Sam; Will Smith, Ali; Denzel Washington, Training Day; Tom Wilkinson, In the Bedroom

My Choice: Without Haley Joel Osment on the list of nominees, it seems a bit empty. Both Will Smith and Sean Penn did terrific work with slight material, and as much as I admired Denzel Washington’s villainous turn in Training Day, his performance has always seemed a supporting one. So it comes down to two actors who obviously started with the internal workings of their characters and worked outward. Both Tom Wilkinson and Russell Crowe are deserving of the award and they both made quite an emotional impact on me, but a slight edge goes to the usually intense Crowe for his surprisingly subtle and harshly vulnerable portrayal of schizophrenic genius John Nash.

My Prediction: Even though he seems a sure thing to win, the big question here is: Does the Academy really want to give Russell Crowe two Oscars back-to-back? When it comes to someone like Tom Hanks, the question isn’t really relevant, but in Crowe’s case, it might be enough to keep him from winning. This is where the stage is set for a huge surprise, and I think Denzel Washington will be taking this one home. Washington is extremely well liked, and he has proved himself time and time again. In Training Day, he plays completely against type, and all of these factors together gives him the edge in this race.

The Winner: Denzel Washington, Training Day

The Nominees: Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball; Judy Dench, Iris; Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge; Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom; Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary

My Choice: Since her performance in To Die For, Nicole Kidman has been making huge developments as an actress. She deserved a nomination for that film as well as a Supporting Actress nomination for her work in Eyes Wide Shut. This year gave her two great performances in two completely different films—Moulin Rouge and The Others. She held her ground in both, and in Moulin Rouge she was heartbreakingly believable in that grand melodramatic gesture of a musical. Sissy Spacek was great in Bedroom, but her character and performance were too overshadowed by Wilkinson for me. Renée Zellweger’s nomination is a good sign for future comedic performances. Both Monster’s Ball and Iris have yet to open near me, so I cannot comment on either Halle Berry or Judi Dench.

My Prediction: A win for Kidman would ensure her star status, and sometimes that’s what the Oscars come down to. It’s happened before, and it could well happen again. Berry just won the SAG award, and her performance has received raves. But from the very beginning, Sissy Spacek has been the one to beat. She’s an established actress, and In the Bedroom has garnered her universal acclaim. She doesn’t have too much competition, and this race has truly been hers to win from the beginning.

The Winner: Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball

The Nominees: Jim Broadbent, Iris; Ethan Hawke, Training Day; Ben Kingsley, Sexy Beast; Ian McKellen, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; Jon Voight, Ali

My Choice: This is one of the weaker categories this year. Jon Voight did a fine impression of Howard Cossell and there was some level of insight to it, but ultimately it felt like an impression. Ethan Hawke was completely overshadowed by Washington to the point that his performance, which would have been fine in any other movie, seemed dull. Ian McKellen as the wisely Gandalf is one of the many examples of a developed character placed within a film that at first glance seems to be only about the visceral splendor. And again, I have not seen Iris. Ben Kingsley, however, pulls off a completely unsettling performance, and considering his other, more kindly roles, it seems all the more an accomplishment.

My Prediction: Somehow, predicting the Supporting Actor category seems to trouble me. Jim Broadbent has won a few awards, but Iris may not have been seen by many Academy voters. McKellen is the respected actor, and everyone has seen Lord of the Rings. Even though it may have been missed by many Academy voters, talk of Ben Kingsley’s performance in Sexy Beast may make voters watch the film or perhaps vote for him simply given his standing as an actor.

The Winner: Jim Broadbent, Iris

The Nominees: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind; Helen Mirren, Gosford Park; Maggie Smith, Gosford Park; Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom; Kate Winslet, Iris

My Choice: This is a solid collection of actresses. Both women of Gosford Park are examples of why the film is so effective. Maggie Smith’s delivery of her verbal barbs is priceless and demonstrates the social satire of the film, and Helen Mirren provides the humanity of the film. Marisa Tomei’s performance was just as heartwrenching as Spacek and Wilkinson’s. But it all comes down to Jennifer Connelly, who not only stood her ground with Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind but also delivered a performance that was necessary to the success of his. The film is centered around the relationship between these two characters, and their combined performances give the portrait of a troubled marriage.

My Prediction: Even though the performances in In the Bedroom seem to be its strong point for awards, Tomei’s performance will probably be overlooked because of the focus on Spacek and Wilkinson. The actresses of Gosford Park may not necessarily split the vote, as it seems Smith’s performance is the one attracting the most attention. The race here seemingly belongs to Connelly, and if Crowe doesn’t win Best Actor, the Academy may consider her win a necessity.

The Winner: Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind

The Nominees: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind; Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down; Robert Altman, Gosford Park; Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

My Choice: Considering how much work Peter Jackson put into The Lord of the Rings trilogy as a whole—three films, filmed at one time, in a little more than a year—there’s no question that he deserves the award. Add to this the fact that the film itself is an artistic and technical triumph, and the choice is all the more clear.

My Prediction: Considering that David Lynch and Ridley Scott do not stand a chance, choosing the winner remains just as difficult. Jackson has two more opportunities to be awarded for his entire trilogy (if they live up to the first one, of course). Robert Altman seems to be the favorite because of his reputation and filmography, but this has been Ron Howard’s award for a while. He’s seen as a deserving underdog, and that will probably be enough.

The Winner: Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind

The Nominees: Amélie, France; Elling, Norway; Lagaan, India; No Man’s Land, Bosnia & Herzegovina; Son of the Bride, Argentina

My Choice: I pick Amélie because I haven’t seen any of the other films.

My Prediction: No Man’s Land upset at the Golden Globes, but Amélie is really loved by too many to be ignored.

The Winner: No Man’s Land

The Nominees: Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius, Monsters, Inc., Shrek

My Choice: I placed Monsters, Inc. and Shrek as a tie on my end of the year list, so I will be happy if either wins.

My Prediction: Shrek is a huge box-office success, and it got an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

The Winner: Shrek

The Nominees: Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind; Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff, Ghost World; Rob Festinger and Todd Field, In the Bedroom; Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring; Ted Elliot & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman, Shrek

My Choice: A Beautiful Mind gave the sense of a whole life, but Fellowship’s screenplay managed to tell the story of the first part of the series while foreshadowing to future developments without forcing either.

My Prediction: Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind

The Winner: Akiva Goldsman, A Beautiful Mind

The Nominees: Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet, Amélie; Julian Fellowes, Gosford Park; Christopher Nolan, Memento; Milo Addica & Will Rokos, Monster’s Ball; Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson, The Royal Tenenbaums

My Choice: As much as I loved Memento’s neo-noir plot, Fellowes’ screenplay for Gosford Park works marvelously on multiple levels.

My Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Memento

The Winner: Julian Fellowes, Gosford Park

The Nominees: Amélie, Gosford Park, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge

My Choice: Moulin Rouge

My Prediction: Moulin Rouge

The Winner: Moulin Rouge

The Nominees: Amélie, Black Hawk Down, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, The Man Who Wasn’t There, Moulin Rouge

My Choice: The Man Who Wasn’t There

My Prediction: The Man Who Wasn’t There

The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Nominees: Amélie, Black Hawk Down, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge, Pearl Harbor

My Choice: Moulin Rouge

My Prediction: Moulin Rouge

The Winner: Black Hawk Down

The Nominees: Monsters, Inc., Pearl Harbor

My Choice: Monsters, Inc.

My Prediction: Pearl Harbor

The Winner: Pearl Harbor

The Nominees: A.I. Artificial Intelligence, John Williams; A Beautiful Mind, James Horner; Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, John Williams; The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Howard Shore; Monsters, Inc., Randy Newman

My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Nominees: "If I Didn’t Have You" from Monsters, Inc., Randy Newman; "May It Be" from The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Enya, Nicky Ryan and Roma Ryan; "There You’ll Be" from Pearl Harbor, Diane Warren; "Until" from Kate & Leopold, Sting; "Vanilla Sky" from Vanilla Sky, Paul McCartney

My Choice: "Vanilla Sky" from Vanilla Sky

My Prediction: "Until" from Kate & Leopold, Sting

The Winner: "If I Didn’t Have You" from Monsters, Inc.

The Nominees: The Affair of the Necklace, Gosford Park, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge

My Choice: Moulin Rouge

My Prediction: Moulin Rouge

The Winner: Moulin Rouge

The Nominees: A Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Memento, Moulin Rouge

My Prediction: Moulin Rouge

The Winner: Black Hawk Down

The Nominees: A Beautiful Mind, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge

My Choice: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Nominees: A.I. Artificial Intelligence, The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, Pearl Harbor

My Choice: A.I. Artificial Intelligence

My Prediction: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

The Nominees: Children Underground, Lalee’s Kin: The Legacy of Cotton, Murder on a Sunday Morning, Promises, War Photographer

My Choice: No idea

My Prediction: Promises

The Winner: Murder on a Sunday Morning

The Nominees: "Artists and Orphans: A True Drama," "Sing!," "Thoth"

My Choice: No idea

My Prediction: "Thoth" (I am completely guessing here.)

The Winner: "Thoth"

The Nominees: "Fifty Percent Grey," "For the Birds," "Give Up Yer Aul Sins," "Strange Invaders," "Stubble Trouble"

My Choice: "For the Birds"

My Prediction: "For the Birds"

The Winner: "For the Birds"

The Nominees: "The Accountant," "Copy Shop," "Gregor’s Greatest Invention," "A Man Thing (Meska Sprawa)," "Speed for Thespians"

My Choice: No idea

My Prediction: "Speed for Thespians" (I am completely guessing here again.)

The Winner: "The Accountant"

Predicted film with the most awards: (tie) The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring and Moulin Rouge

Predicted number of awards: 4

Film with most awards: (tie) A Beautiful Mind and The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Number of awards: 4

Copyright © 2002 by Mark Dujsik. All rights reserved.